Victoria's Political Landscape: Can the Liberal Party Navigate the One Nation Challenge?
The Victorian Liberal Party faces a critical test as the rising popularity of One Nation threatens to disrupt the political equilibrium. While internal conflicts have historically hindered their path to power, a new contender emerges from the right. But here's where it gets intriguing: One Nation's recent surge in the polls has sent shockwaves through the political arena.
In the 2022 elections, One Nation garnered a mere 0.22% of first-preference votes in Victoria's lower house, securing a single upper house seat. Fast forward to 2026, and the polls paint a different picture. Resolve predicts a modest 11% of first preference votes, while Roy Morgan suggests a staggering 26.5%. This dramatic shift has the Liberal Party on edge.
The summer saw One Nation campaigning against the Labor government's bushfire response, and they've announced their largest election campaign yet in Victoria. This has senior Liberals, like former premier Jeff Kennett, advocating for a strategic alliance with One Nation, even suggesting governing in minority with their support.
But the party leader, Jess Wilson, remains tight-lipped on the matter. She insists that preference decisions will be made closer to the election and that her focus is on securing the number one vote for the Liberal and Nationals parties. However, the timing of such decisions is a delicate dance, as demonstrated by the Coalition's 2022 decision to put Labor last on its how-to-vote-cards, which had significant consequences.
The question of preferences is a complex one, and it's here that opinions diverge. Some Liberals argue that One Nation's impact will be felt more in Labor-Greens contests than in their own electoral prospects. They believe that in most seats, One Nation's votes will ultimately favor one of the major parties, potentially weakening the Coalition's chances if they favor Labor.
The power to decide preferences lies with Wilson and the party's executive committee, known for its moderate stance. They've been working behind the scenes to strengthen their candidate pool, including extending nomination periods and recruiting outside the party. This strategy aims to solidify their centrist appeal, but it's not without risks.
Controversy arises as rumors swirl about potential defections from the Victorian Coalition to One Nation. Federal MP Barnaby Joyce confirmed these discussions, and there's speculation that Moira Deeming might switch sides if she loses preselection. This could provide One Nation with additional resources and further complicate the political landscape.
The situation is further complicated by accusations of Wilson 'cosying up' to One Nation, leading to her withdrawal from an event with Joyce. The Labor party has seized on this, with Ingrid Stitt, the minister for multicultural affairs, attempting to link Wilson to Pauline Hanson's inflammatory remarks about Muslims. This has put the Liberal Party in a delicate position, especially in multicultural communities and inner-Melbourne seats where Hanson is seen as divisive.
As the November election approaches, the choices made by the Liberal Party will be pivotal. Will they navigate this challenge successfully, or will One Nation's rise reshape Victoria's political landscape? The outcome remains uncertain, leaving room for intense debate and speculation.
